christmasroulette| Soda ash: Summer of Salt Chemical Industry

Source: Cofco Futures Research Center

Introduction

fourChristmasrouletteIn the article "Soda Soda: hypertension" ushered in "antihypertensive drugs" in .19, we mentioned that 2409 of the contract was a peak season contract.ChristmasrouletteIn addition to the stimulation of overhauling this "antihypertensive drug" (it is expected to continue to use the "drug" in July and August), there are all kinds of encouragement and heart-warming words brought by the "doctor" (macro) from time to time, and the "brothers" of the patients next door, some have become lively, and some have begun to rub their hands. Under this kind of physical and mental treatment, the soda ash 2409 contract is naturally easier to get up and down, and it is more suitable for bargain matching. At present, with the gradual implementation of all kinds of bullish news macroscopically, coupled with the re-hype of environmental protection issues in Qinghai and the lower-than-expected actual production progress of a certain device, the price of soda ash has risen again, with PVC, glass and other varieties, ushering in the salt and chemical industry plate's own midsummer.

one

"spiritual" therapy

Although the "mental" therapy brought about by this round of macro-economy is different from the internal and external forces, it plays an indescribable role in the recent bull market of bulk industrial products. As far as overseas is concerned, although it does not help soda ash much, because overseas trading funds are more inclined to do macro allocation, coupled with more money overissued in recent years, industrial products with better performance-to-price ratio have become one of the allocation of overseas fund managers. According to a survey by Bank of America, the latest FMS investors have increased their commodity allocation to 13% of the net overallocation, reaching a new high after 2023, virtually boosting the bull market of the entire industrial product, and precious metals, non-ferrous metals and other varieties with "capital" attributes have hit new highs one after another. In this bull market atmosphere of overseas industrial products, domestic industrial products are more likely to resonate and take advantage of strength.

Domestically, more or real estate-related policies help. Since late April, the good news from the domestic real estate side has been released frequently. First, some overseas institutions have changed their pessimistic view of domestic real estate, believing that domestic real estate will recover within two years. In addition, the Politburo meeting clearly put forward the "overall study of policies and measures to digest stock real estate and optimize incremental housing", and then around 5.1, various cities gradually relaxed purchase restrictions around this tone. In particular, Beijing has also begun to liberalize purchase restrictions in non-core areas, with obvious signal significance. Stocks, real estate-related sectors and large black, building materials categories have recorded large increases during this period. The recent heavy policy of the property market should be implemented as much as possible. the expansion of the scope of housing assistance, the release of storage policy and the adjustment of personal mortgage interest rate policy have undoubtedly further ignited the frenzy of bulk industrial products.

Figure 1 M2 of China and the United States

two

"physical" therapy

There is no accident at the supply end of soda ash. There is an endless stream of news that either the shutdown of core components imported from Israel has led to boiler failure, or there is a problem with water collection permits, or environmental inspections in some place have led to restrictions on the exploitation of raw salt. Although the impact of the start-up of each plant is limited, and the overall production capacity and output of soda ash have indeed reached a level compared with the same period last year, but taken together, it reveals a phenomenon: the bulls have the initiative. It doesn't matter whether the news is true or false, intentional or unintentional. Since there is a lot of favorable news, and the market is also taking advantage of the situation, it means that there must be multi-party funds to make the market, and the price continues to rise, which shows that the bears are vulnerable to a single blow in front of the bulls, and the volume and price already reflect everything. It is completely meaningless to investigate the news again.

In the article "PVC: new Life" on May 17, we mentioned that the current funds obviously pay more attention to the varieties with low prices, ambushing for 1-2 months, building a warehouse to absorb chips, or waiting for the supply side to have a story or actively release the supply side story, and then infinitely enlarge, homeopathic pull up, especially Zhong Cang Yuan month, so that even if the later development is not as expected, it can not be falsified at this stage. There is also plenty of space and time to retreat. At present, the production end of a certain plant in Alashan is frequently disturbed, and the problem of environmental protection in Qinghai is fermented again. This market is more of a lingering fear for short sellers. Unless there is macro cooperation, it is difficult to enlarge the position to layout, and the whole situation is virtually firmly controlled by bulls.

Although at present, the pressure of high supply and high inventory of soda ash is still there, it is obviously not the focus of financial attention. The lower-than-expected start-up of the Alxa plant and the re-fermentation of environmental protection problems in Qinghai have undoubtedly once again given the point and space for capital development, and brought a new round of "physiotherapy" to the soda ash industry.

Fig. 2 weekly maintenance of soda ash

three

The midsummer of salt chemical industry

Generally speaking, the current market is more dominated by the capital market, and macroscopically, there is internal and external resonance. Once Europe and the United States start to cut interest rates in the future, there will be more room for the development of domestic policies. Microscopically, there is the impact of environmental protection in Qinghai, if the disturbance to the production of raw salt continues, then the value of the relatively more matching of soda ash chain (soda ash, glass) and chlor-alkali (PVC, caustic soda) chain will be higher, and with the advent of the summer power peak, it may also bring a major test to the production of raw materials. Mood and situation are the eternal underlying logic of trading, the tide of policy and capital is coming, and the whole salt chemical industry is likely to take advantage of this to usher in the peak summer of the plate.

Risk tips: the intensity of environmental inspection; the process of economic repair.

Tags:

Prev: playstrippokeronline| AMD submits EPYC 9005 series processors with a maximum of 192 cores and 384 threads
Next: luckydreamscasinonodepositbonus| Chabaidao's stock price stability period ends: global offering over rights issue expires