goldfortunefafafamyanmar| Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals: Supply increase, U.S. tariff increase and other short-term factors have dragged down the center of gravity of lithium carbonate significantly (5.13-5.17)

Yangtze River small Metal mesh (www)Goldfortunefafafamyanmar.ccmn.cn / xiaojinshu): 99.5% Lithium Carbonate of Changjiang Comprehensive Battery Grade quoted price of 98000-111000 yuan / ton on May 17thGoldfortunefafafamyanmarThe average price was 104500 yuan / ton, the same as the previous trading day; 99.2% of industrial-grade lithium carbonate quoted 97500-108000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 102750 yuan / ton, the same as the previous trading day. This week, the average weekly price of comprehensive battery-grade lithium carbonate in Yangtze River was 105650 yuan / ton, down 3000 yuan, while that of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 104600 yuan / ton, down 4050 yuan.

The price of lithium carbonate fell this week (5.13-5.17), and the overall market showed a weak operation. The sentiment of the market towards the new energy sector has declined, the downstream production increment has obviously narrowed, the superimposed raw material inventory of most enterprises is on the high side, and most of them are mainly long-term association orders, and spot bulk orders are also reduced under the emotion of "buying up but not buying down". The enthusiasm of entering the market for inquiry has weakened, and the trading atmosphere has turned cold.

Disturbance weakening, incremental release, supply pressure restarting.

Large factories in Qinghai and other regions have basically completed their maintenance, and the salt lake has entered the summer production season, and the technology is becoming more and more mature, the development of resources is accelerated, and the output is expected to increase one after another. Jiangxi has been weakened by environmental inspections, and most manufacturers have resumed production, with output higher than in April. At the same time, the supply of imports has increased, and port inventories have flowed into the spot market one after another, further "contributing" to the pressure of excess supply. However, due to a certain period of time in procurement and transportation, spot circulation is still relatively scarce.

Although the policy side will control enterprises whose capacity utilization is less than 50%, at present, low utilization mainly occurs on the mica side, and most of the mica-producing processes are large-scale salt enterprises, and the impact of the policy on supply disturbance is limited. Recently, the Yichun municipal government issued a notice on further strengthening the city-wide guidance on the utilization and disposal of lithium slag, which is expected to increase the cost of lithium mica manufacturers, but the policy mainly affects after September 1, 2025, and the previous date will not be affected.

With the introduction of new energy vehicle policies related to "trade in clunkers" one after another, the market confidence in future demand has improved. Many enterprises in the lithium power industry have increased their investment and announced production expansion plans again. The current quotations of manufacturers are strongly guided by market sentiment. Some smelters sign long orders for lithium power enterprises, and restrict the supply of goods to traders in order to prevent indiscriminate price increases.

According to the latest data, the output of domestic lithium carbonate in April 2024 was about 52800 tons, an increase from the previous month.Goldfortunefafafamyanmar24%, an increase of 80% over the same period last year. In the first four months of this year, the cumulative production of domestic lithium carbonate reached 169700 tons, an increase of 35 per cent compared with the same period last year. According to Chilean customs data, Chile exported about 22 percent of lithium carbonate to China in April.Goldfortunefafafamyanmar, 900 tons, an increase of 42.27% from a month earlier and an increase of 162.25% over the same period last year.

The effect of the policy of slowing demand growth remains to be verified.

At the end of April, seven departments jointly issued the detailed rules for the implementation of subsidies for trade-in cars, clarifying the scope and standards of subsidies for trade-in cars, the 2024 Beijing International Auto Show, and the cooperation of manufacturers and dealers to carry out promotions. consumers are still enthusiastic about new energy vehicles, but due to the increasing abundance of models and serious internal rolls of car companies, consumers have a difficult choice. On the contrary, sales in April were lower than in March.

According to the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 870000 and 850000 respectively in April, up 30.9 per cent and 33.5 per cent respectively from a year earlier, with a market share of 36 per cent. From January to April, the production and marketing of new energy vehicles completed 2.985 million and 2.94 million respectively, an increase of 30.3% and 32.3% respectively over the same period last year, and the market share reached 32.4%.

However, in many places to "trade old for new" and other policies to promote, the market is expected to show a growth trend of new energy vehicles in May. According to the latest data from the Federation of passengers, the market for new energy vehicles sold 241000 vehicles from May 1 to 12, an increase of 31% over the same period last year and 10% over the same period last month.

On May 14, the Office of the United States Trade Representative officially released the results of a four-year review of the 301 tariff on China. The tariff on Chinese electric vehicles will be raised from the current 25% to 100%. The tariff rate on lithium batteries for electric vehicles will be raised from 7.5% to 25%. The news directly triggered concerns about short-term demand and had a certain impact on the spot market of lithium carbonate.

Due to the increase in the proportion of customers and supply, as well as the month-on-month decline in the retail data of new energy vehicles, and the slowdown in the production scheduling process of battery factories and cathode material factories, some manufacturers are less willing to purchase and are less enthusiastic in entering the market, mainly long Association orders. The overall stock preparation days of downstream enterprises have been prolonged compared with the previous period, and the rising sentiment of traders and the cherished selling attitude of lithium salt manufacturers have led to a slight panic in the lower reaches, and a small number of customers have increased their purchasing enthusiasm, but the actual transaction is more cautious. The spot market is still dominated by retail rigid demand.

Overall, the supply side tends to be loose, warehouse receipt inventory and social inventory are showing an increasing trend, downstream at the end of the "gold, silver and silver four" consumer season demand has slowed, but encouraged by the "trade-in" policy, the terminal market is expected to be boosted, spot procurement is expected to pick up again, coupled with the cost side still has support, lithium carbonate prices downward space is limited, is expected to pick up next week. Yangtze River non-ferrous metal net Tel: 0592-5668838

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