baccaratbarsolaire|贾国瑞：下阶段商用车低碳政策发展趋势研判
专题：2024中国商用车论坛
2024年3月26日-28日baccaratbarsolaire，2024中国商用车论坛在湖北省十堰市举办。本届论坛由中国汽车工业协会主办，以“新步伐•新成效•新提高，助力商用车产业高质量发展”为主题，基于行业高质量发展要求、国家“双碳”目标实现、汽车产业转型和创新需要，以创新促改革、促转型、促发展，助力商用车产业高质量发展。其中，在3月28日上午举办的“主题论坛一：‘双碳’背景下商用车绿色低碳转型升级之路”上，中国汽车技术研究中心有限公司中汽数据有限公司产品与技术战略部商用车研究室高级工程师贾国瑞发表精彩演讲。以下内容为现场发言实录：
尊敬的陈秘书长，各位领导、各位同事、行业的各位同仁，大家好，我是来自中国汽车技术研究中心的贾国瑞。中汽数据是中汽中心的二级单位，拥有行业里乘商用车全领域最全的数据，同时也支撑工信部等相关部委做相关的政策，刚刚陈秘书长也提到了，从2017年10月份我们支撑工信部发布了乘用车的双积分之后，我们一直开始起草研究商用车的积分管理办法，现在已经历经了7年。刚刚秘书长也提到了，说政策推行得比较慢，为什么？从这7年的研究，包括中间的3年疫情，我们考虑到各个环节，因为商用车它的使用场景、它的产品和整个产品的供给，以及技术成熟度，这些年一直在发生变化，同时要考虑到“双碳”目标和能源安全，这是一个比较大的系统性工程，我们在整体评估目标上要保证审慎，而且一定要平稳，同时要考虑到各家企业整体的盈利相关情况，所以我们整体考虑应该更全面一些。
这次给大家汇报的下阶段商用车低碳政策整体的发展趋势，主要是针对商用车的积分政策。
分为三个方面，一个是商用车积分政策管理的必要性和商用车发展新能源汽车遇到的哪些问题和困难，第二就是积分政策总体的设计思路，考虑到哪些因素和环节，如果我们乐观估计，比如今年发布征求意见稿，我们推断测算未来我们在积分政策上会有哪些预期的相应的评估成果。
大体的宏观我们都知道商用车的保有量仅占汽车保有量的12%，但是它的碳排放占了56%左右，持续推动商用车的低碳、节能是非常重要，而且势在必行。
我们知道乘用车这几年它的新能源比例持续攀升，商用车的新能源占比跟渗透率这两年有一定的变化和波动，具体根源在哪儿？其中有个回答是商用车作为一个生产资料，它和乘用车的消费品属性不一样，这只是一个角度。另外一个角度，作为商用车推动新能源化的过程中存在的转型溢价的问题，谁来为溢价买单，整车企业、客户还是政府或者资本？对于乘用车，国家相关补贴和资本大力介入，包括很多造车新势力，推动了乘用车新能源化和电动化的发展。对于商用车，从补贴逐渐退坡之后，缺少类似于乘用车积分政策这样的政策接力来保证商用车电动化的发展，这也是现在存在的一个问题。
另外一个问题是比较客观现实的，对于商用车的纯电和燃油车成本相差比较大，举个例子来说，对于18吨中重卡，成本相差了大约37万左右，油电差距大也是阻碍商用车电动化转型非常重要的因素。
对于政策端要考虑到的是一个系统工程，对于供需两端多方主体会形成这样一个分摊格局趋势。对于整车企业、司机、运输公司，还有一些高排放的企业，前期对于形成供需联动的溢价分摊格局，共同承担了一部分的低碳转型的成本。随着新能源比例的逐步提升，会推演到商用车新能源的比例逐渐提升，从而达成规模效益，降低制造成本，这种在乘用车方面已经凸显得非常明显，这种溢价也会很快消化。但是对于商用车来说，还存在溢价难以消化的问题。
另一个方面，对于不同政策它的侧重点和发力点是不一样的，对于供给端，像轻型和重型燃料消耗的限制，主要是针对于燃油车它的燃油消耗，缺少了对于新能源汽车相关的鼓励。
对于需求端，财税2024到2025有免征，2026到2027有减半的征收，在财税补贴退坡之后导致传统新能源汽车购置成本的增加，这是一部分。第二个问题，针对整车企业，商用车企业开发的商用车的产品相比于乘用车来说，产品的数量比较少，用户选择的范围比较有限，很多前期还是基于油改电的平台进行的研发，局限了产品的供应能力。
针对于场景，场景现在出现了什么样的挑战呢？各类场景的电动化发展得还是不均衡，如果仅以纯电作为主要技术路线，对于高寒，还有一些比较复杂的能源补充受局限的场景，难以覆盖全场景。对于新能源商用车来说，在城市物流和M3城市客车，新能源占比比较高，对于重型牵引，甚至皮卡，相对来说纯电的比例比较低。考虑到路权、运营补贴和运距等相关因素，新能源汽车TCO还有相应的挑战。
刚说的是场景和产品，对于技术路线方面又有哪些挑战？我们整个团队参与了学会的商用车技术路线图1baccaratbarsolaire.0, make an overall evaluation of each technical route, which is combined with the corresponding scenario. A consensus has been reached on the diversified technical route of commercial vehicles, but there is still a lack of clear policy guidance on the policy side, such as the points policy. The degree of development of various types of technology maturity is also different. For pure electricity now basically belongs to the mainstream of new energy, plug-in companies have corresponding products, which have just been introduced, but our survey of the overall cost feedback from various enterprises or relatively speaking the competitive advantage is not very obvious. The fuel cell itself has the problems of car and energy replenishment, and there are corresponding technical difficulties for the recent hot hydrogen and even ammonia internal combustion engine, which need to be overcome. There is also hydrogenation and hydrogen storage, which is a problem not only for the automotive industry, but also for the energy industry to work together. This is an existing challenge to the technical route.
Looking back at the traditional energy-saving technology, there is still some room for upgrading in energy-saving. We have investigated the development potential and cost of energy-saving technology in the industry. We can see that commercial vehicles still have a lot of room for energy-saving technology improvement. At the same time, relying solely on the limit standard of bicycle fuel consumption can not fully stimulate enterprises to carry such a driving force for energy-saving technology, which also belongs to the need for a new policy to supplement and encourage.
In the second part, I would like to report to you the relevant research progress and design ideas on the commercial vehicle points policy over the years.
On the whole, the overall goal is still goal-oriented, while taking into account safety and prudence, and encourage and guide key areas and key advanced technologies. The most important goal orientation is to combine the national "double carbon" strategic goal, and to ensure national energy security, because commercial vehicles are a very important link in production. In order to ensure the safety of industry and production, we must adopt positive and steady goal orientation.
For the integral policy industry is expected to be simple, with higher maneuverability, reduce the corresponding compliance costs of commercial vehicle enterprises, and reduce unnecessary investment in product research and development. At the same time, it is aimed at guiding the development of the corresponding technical route for low-carbon and zero-carbon hydrogen internal combustion engines in recent years.
This is the consensus we have reached in the industry as a whole, that is, the feedback given to us by our team and the commercial vehicle companies of the working group in the process of commercial vehicle points policy research.
In the new situation, there are still some challenges, especially the overall market development is still less than expected. At the same time, the scene of the commercial vehicle itself is also diversified, and the technical route is also quite different. For the development of multi-element low-carbon technology in the industry, there is such a demand, but also need the corresponding policy to give a clear signal.
Next is the evaluation of how to set up a more scientific and reasonable management mechanism. We made an overall assessment of various schemes in the early stage. What is the impact of an enterprise's average fuel consumption on the commercial vehicle industry? The other is the scheme of single integral of new energy.
After the overall evaluation, we found that only using the average fuel consumption score of commercial vehicle enterprises, for some products of subdivided models, its new energy technology guidance is still insufficient, especially for different models of new energy guidance is limited, and can not be accurately encouraged.
On the other hand, it aims at new energy points, which can achieve the role of taking into account both the subdivision of the scene and the specific energy-saving technologies. At the same time, in the integral policy, we can also give corresponding encouragement and support to vehicles equipped with new energy internal combustion engines, such as hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and other zero emissions or zero life cycle carbon emissions. This is also to guide and encourage the corresponding development of advanced technology. This is a scheme for new energy points.
The next step is how to set and evaluate the overall management strength. This takes into account the corresponding national strategy, including the decomposition of the "double carbon" goal, divided into the automotive industry, and then subdivided into the commercial vehicle industry. And for the development of the market itself, what is its development potential? for example, the penetration rate of new energy will reach 19% to 33% by 2030, which is a relatively optimistic estimate. We should also take into account the current level of international development, such as the European Union and the United States just introduced by teacher Niu Tianlin, we should look at the pace and extent of progress in other countries, neither radical nor backward, and make an overall synthesis. Set our overall target for the proportion of new energy by 2026 and 2028.
What is the evaluation of the strength of different models? What points have been considered? What are the principles? For example, the economy of TCO, when the new energy commercial vehicles can be tied with fuel vehicles, and the detailed analysis of the subdivision scene, when the commercial vehicles based on logistics and sanitation will be able to reach a certain scale and achieve the goal of extended range. There are also corresponding design principles for the proportion of different models, including urban public transport, traction, self-unloading, new sanitation, and setting the proportion of vehicles according to the actual situation for different scenes and models.
Next is the model of the proportion of bicycles, what is the methodology, and what is the basis of our calculation for each type of model? In the future, the corresponding points for commercial vehicle products should also take into account the input of the whole technology, as well as products and use scenarios, these factors affect the contribution related to carbon emissions. This is based on different models to set the bicycle, single integral ratio.
Next, for the commercial vehicle points policy is very optimistic estimation, after the implementation of the entire society, the entire industry has what kind of effect evaluation.
We are divided into three aspects, the first is the market. It is expected that after the release of the three-year points policy, the corresponding benefits are expected to promote the growth of 625000 new energy commercial vehicles, which is expected to reach 1.19 million in 2028, including 135000 new energy heavy trucks. This is our overall comprehensive calculation. This is the market level.
Second, for the iterative development of technology, it is taken into account that for different product platforms and corresponding technologies, leading enterprises and new car-building forces also have early reserves for technology. however, more new energy products need to be supplied in the market, which further promotes the increase in the number of new energy products.
Third, returning to the final carbon emissions target will save a total of 17.28 million tons of energy and reduce carbon emissions by about 52.85 million tons in three years, which is based on the relevant impact on the industry after the introduction of the points policy.
The research, participation and formulation of the points policy can not be separated from the joint participation of the industry and various enterprises, especially the new forces of car manufacturing and parts enterprises. Here, we also call on the industry to actively participate in the points research and discussion process, and everyone expresses their own views. Express their own demands, support the commercial vehicle points policy can be launched more scientifically and reasonably, and contribute to the transformation of new energy for commercial vehicles.
OK, thank you!
(note: this article is based on on-site shorthand and has not been reviewed by the speaker.)
Sina stated that all the minutes of the meeting were arranged in shorthand and had not been reviewed by the speaker. Sina's publication of this article for the purpose of transmitting more information does not mean agreeing with its point of view or confirming its description.
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