smallmouthbass| In May, the central bank continued to produce "spicy flour" at an equal price of 125 billion yuan. Experts: There is no urgency to reduce the reserve price in the short term

On May 15, the official website of the people's Bank of China announced that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the 125 billion yuan medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation was launched today, with an one-year term and an interest rate of 2.Smallmouthbass.5%.

A reporter from the Daily Business News noted that the maturity of MLF in May was 125 billion, and the central bank invested 125 billion yuan, and this month's MLF operation is actually a continuation of the same amount of parity. In addition, the maturity of MLF this month is the smallest in recent months, and the scale of operation is also the smallest in nearly 10 months, but it ends the model of "shrinking sequel" in the previous two months.

The maturity of MLF in May was 125 billion yuan, the smallest in nearly 10 months. In addition, the scale of MLF launch this month is 125 billion yuan, which is also relatively small in recent months. But it is worth noting that this month MLF ended the model of shrinking sequels in the first two months and changed to the same amount of sequels.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, pointed out that the continuation of the MLF equal volume parity is in line with market expectations. At present, the market liquidity is relatively loose, which is relatively lower than the cost of inter-bank deposit certificate capital, and the interest rate of MLF capital is on the high side. Due to the short-term fluctuation of credit demand in the real economy after the strong credit impulse in the first quarter of the year, all these lead to insufficient demand for MLF this month.

Wang Qing believes that the recent MLF input is relatively low, overall in the same amount or shrinking continuous cropping state. At present, the liquidity of the banking system is abundant, and the demand of commercial banks for MLF operation is reduced. Wang Qing stressed that 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be "opened" on May 17, but the issuance cycle will be as long as six months, which means that the "pumping effect" on the capital side of the banking system is limited in the short term, which is also one reason why banks have not significantly increased demand for MLF operations this month.

It is worth noting that the financial data fluctuated sharply in April, with a rare negative value for new social integration. Wang Qing's analysis pointed out that although the recent low data on new social finance will affect the operational demand of banks' MLF, with the reversal of the effect of "balanced credit delivery", new credit is expected to continue to increase compared with the same period last year, while the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will also accelerate significantly. At the end of April, the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee made it clear that "it is necessary to issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible." Speed up the progress of the issuance and use of special bonds ", it is expected that the bank demand for the operation of MLF will increase in the later stage, and MLF is expected to turn to additional work.

It is worth noting that the MLF interest rate remained at 2.5% this month, unchanged for nine consecutive months. Wang Qing believes that the operating interest rate of MLF in May will remain unchanged, which is in line with market expectations. There are two main reasons.SmallmouthbassFirst, the market interest rate has declined in an all-round way recently, and it has deviated from the policy interest rate center by a large margin, and there is no market environment for lowering the policy interest rate at present; second, the economic growth in the first quarter has exceeded expectations, and the recent macro data is strong. Currently in the policy effect observation period, the urgency of interest rate reduction is not high.

"however, the price level is low at present and for some time to come, the momentum of economic growth needs to be further improved, and the reduction of the MLF operating rate in the future is still one of the important policy options." Wang Qing said.

Zhou Maohua said: "MLF interest rates remain stable. The main reason is that the financing cost of the real economy is in a reasonable range, and when the global market fluctuates violently, domestic policies need to take into account the internal and external equilibrium. "

Predicting the follow-up interest rate trend, Wang Qing believes that, finally, under the background that the MLF operating rate remains stable in May and the bank net interest margin is likely to narrow further in the near future, the LPR quotations of the two maturity varieties in May will remain unchanged.

Zhou Maohua believes that LPR interest rates are expected to remain stable this month. At present, some banks are facing greater pressure on the net interest margin, coupled with the current domestic policy interest rates are basically in line with potential economic growth, and MLF interest rates remain stable this month. At the same time, there is no contradiction between the stability of domestic policy interest rates and the decline of comprehensive financing costs in the real economy. In China, we use quantitative tools such as structural tools to cooperate with interest rate reform to guide financial institutions to reasonably benefit the real economy.

Zhou Maohua said that at present, market liquidity remains reasonable and abundant, consumption, domestic demand and prices show a steady rebound, the cumulative effect of the policy of stabilizing the property market is gradually emerging, real estate shows initial signs of recovery, and there is no urgency to cut reserve requirements in the short term. At present, there is plenty of room for monetary policy in a low-price environment, and there is plenty of room for monetary policy to cut reserve requirements, interest rates, and structural tools, but the central bank needs to further observe the effect of previous policies, the pace of recovery of domestic demand, prices, and real estate, so as to create various reform measures that are suitable for the monetary and financial environment and take into account internal and external equilibrium.

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