crashbandicootskylandersacademy| Consolidated Shipping Index (European Line)-Houthi armed forces may expand operations, and the Red Sea crisis may continue until early next year

Last week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) collectively rose, with the main contract rising 18 per weekcrashbandicootskylandersacademy.09%, and other contracts have increased by 1-16%. The increase in contracts in recent months is greater than in distant months. The latest SCFIS European Line Settlement Freight Index is 2,512crashbandicootskylandersacademy.14 points, a sharp increase of 303.31 points from last week and a month-on-month increase of 13.7%, but there is still a large gap from the futures price. The Israeli army continues to carry out "precision strikes" against Hamas in Rafah, and the geopolitical conflict has not improved, which has increased market worries and provided support for futures prices. In addition, the Houthi armed forces said or expanded their presence in the Indian OceancrashbandicootskylandersacademyAs a result, the bypass situation will be difficult to change in the short term, and the Red Sea crisis may continue until early next year. However, from a medium-to long-term fundamentals, supply pressure in the shipping industry has not decreased, while European economic performance lacks resilience, and high inflation and high interest rates will continue to drag down the euro zone economycrashbandicootskylandersacademyThe recovery of the consolidated transportation boom still needs to be observed. In terms of exchange rates, the latest data shows that U.S. retail sales in April were much lower than expected, with a growth rate of 0.0% in April, down from 0.6% in March, compared with the previous forecast of 0.4%. The weaker-than-expected data and the Fed's tendency to relax policies have intensified expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates soon, and the rate of interest cuts has been lowered. It is unlikely that the US dollar exchange rate will fall rapidly, which will provide certain support for container freight rates. In summary, the warming of geographical conflicts and the sharp rise in the spot freight rate index support freight rates. At the same time, shipping companies also support the price increase. However, the fundamental situation has not changed, and the excessive basis has exacerbated the volatility of futures prices, making transactions more difficult. It is recommended that investors remain cautious and pay attention to the operating rhythm and risk control.

Researcher: Cai Yuehui

Futures qualification number: F0251444

Futures investment consulting certificate number: 20013101

Assistant Researcher: Li Qiurong

Futures qualification number: F03101823

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