indianpokerrules| Everbright Futures: Interest rate cuts bet on rising gold prices in the short term or strong shocks
Last week, COMEX gold prices rose 2.5 percentindianpokerrules.23% to US$2,419.80/ounce, and Shanghai gold companies rose 0.62% to 564.86 yuan/gram.
In terms of inflation. Last week, inflation data came into effect. Among them, the monthly CPI rate fell for the first time in seven months and has now fallen back to the low level since December 2023. Specifically, the adjusted monthly core CPI rate exceeded expectations in April, with a downward trend of 0.1%, recording 0.3%. In April, the core CPI annual rate without seasonally adjusted, the core CPI annual rate without seasonally adjusted, and the core CPI monthly rate after seasonally adjusted all fell ahead of schedule, in line with market expectations, recording 3.6%, 3.4%, and 0.3% respectively. The fall in inflation data has improved sentiment in interest rate cuts, and the market has increased bets on the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September.
In terms of economic operations. Whether it is the monthly retail sales rate in the United States in April, the New York Fed manufacturing index in May, the monthly rate of industrial output in April, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in May, etc., various economic data have weakened to varying degrees. The inhibitory effect of high interest rates on the economy may be exerted, and the market may be increasingly suspicious of the sustainability of high interest rates.
On the whole, the fall in CPI data has raised market expectations for an inflation correction. The continued weakening of economic data has made the market's expectation of high interest rates unsustainable. Coupled with the recent continued weakening of the US dollar index, gold prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. However, it should be noted that, on the one hand, a single decline in inflation data has limited effect on the market, and the space above the gold price should not be overly optimistic in the short term.indianpokerrulesOn the other hand, recently, Fed officials have made frequent hawkish statements. For example, Governor Bowman once said that inflation will remain high for some time. If inflation stagnates or rebounds, he is willing to support the Fed to restart interest rates. Obviously, the current interest rate cut bets may be reversed in economic data and Fed officials 'speeches, so we need to be vigilant about the impact of officials' biased speeches on the market.
Source: Wind, Jinshi Data, Everbright Futures Research Institute
Written by: Wu Aihua
Qualification: F3074355
Investment consulting qualification: Z0017696
Disclaimer: The opinions, suggestions and conclusions in this article are for reference only. The information in the report comes from public information. The relevant analysis and suggestions do not constitute the basis for investment operations of the products mentioned. Any investment decisions made by investors based on this are related to the company and the author has nothing to do with it.
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