crashbandicootnsanetrilogypcdownload| Snowball's monthly dividend version of "Phoenix" is selling very well. Is it a good time to get on the bus now?

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Interface News reporter | Zou Wenrong

Investors' love for snowballs will not disappear, but it will shift.

At the beginning of the year, the situation of 10 billion snowballs knocked in collectively due to the sharp fall in the market is still fresh in my mind. With the rebound of the market after the Spring Festival, interface journalists observed that recently, a Phoenix structure snowball claimed to pay monthly dividends is regaining the hearts of investors.

Nine of the ten brokerages are selling "Phoenix", although it is slightly exaggerated, but investors can't lie about the real money they spend.

"the total quota of the second phase on sale today is 200 million, and more than one billion has been sold in one day. It is estimated that it will be full tomorrow. Later, it is recommended to make an appointment in advance." The financial manager of the business department of a head brokerage introduced it to the interface news reporter.

"it is suitable to buy early profit (snowball) at the beginning of the year, and Phoenix (structural snowball) is the safest at this stage." The financial manager of another brokerage also recommended it to reporters.

What is Phoenix structure?Crashbandicootnsanetrilogypcdownload? Why do brokerages mainly promote Phoenix structure recently? Will the Phoenix structure be safer than the traditional snowball?

In essence, the Phoenix structure is still a variation of the classical snowball structure, and the main difference between the two isCrashbandicootnsanetrilogypcdownloadThe traditional snowball structure is to knock out or get the final principal and coupon when the snowball structure expires, while the principal and coupon of the Phoenix structure are calculated separately.

Wu Xiaodong, a researcher in the financial products and innovation business department of CITIC Construction Investment Securities, said that the principal part of the Phoenix structure is the same as the classical snowball structure, that is, the final loss is determined according to the trend of the snowball.

And the part of the coupon is observed on January 1, that is, on the observation day of the monthly dividend (usually the observation day of knocking out), if the underlying price ≥ pays out the obstacle price (generally consistent with the knock-in price), then the product will pay the dividend according to the agreed dividend rate (which can also be understood as the dividend); if the target price < the dividend barrier price, then no dividend will be paid in that month.

In the end, the profit and loss of Phoenix structure = coupon gain + loss.

For example, suppose a qualified investor buys a Phoenix structure product with a nominal principal of 1 million yuan, the target is the CSI 500 index, and the duration is set at 24 months.

Without considering the influence of product management fees, value-added tax, special events and other factors, investors may face a total of five kinds of profit and loss in the two-year observation period from the starting date.

Situation one: if you don't knock in, you knock out ahead of time / due. Suppose there is a knock-out in the fifth month (the knock-out price of the CSI 500 index is greater than the knock-out price), which has not been knocked in before. Then the coupon of the Phoenix structure is 5% (1% less than 5 months), there is no loss of principal, and the investor gets 1.05 million yuan of principal and interest before the fee.

Case 2: once tapped in, knocked out ahead of time / due. Suppose it was knocked out in the eighth month, but it was knocked in from April to May. Then the investor only loses the coupon for two months, and there is no loss on the principal, or the coupon on contingent income is 6% (1% less than 6 months), and the investor gets 1.06 million yuan in principal and interest before the fee.

Situation 3: neither knock in nor knock out. It has not been knocked out in two years, nor on any trading day, indicating that the dividend conditions have been successfully triggered on each dividend observation day. The total income of the Phoenix structure is 24% of the 24-month coupon income, plus 0 contingent loss, and the total income is 24%. In the end, investors can get 1.24 million principal and interest before fees.

Case 4: knock in and not knock out (the target price on the maturity date ≥ initial price, but not higher than the knock-out price). Since the target price of the maturity date is greater than the initial price of the period, investors will not lose the principal. Assuming that the price of the previous 6-month observation day mark is lower than the knock-in price, the Phoenix structure has an 18% coupon yield of 18 months, and finally the investor can get 1.18 million of the principal and interest before the fee.

Case 5: knock in and not knock out (the target price on the maturity date is less than the initial price). Due to the knock-in and no knock-out, the profit and loss of the principal part depends on the difference between the closing price and the opening price at the expiration of the structure, while the coupon part depends on whether the monthly dividend conditions are met. If a knock-in occurs on a 4-month observation day during the period, the contingent coupon return of the product is 20%, and the principal maturity loss is 21%. If the two parts are added together, the total income is-1%, and the final investor can get 990000 principal and interest before the fee.

It is not difficult to deduce from the above five situations that as long as the price of each dividend observation day is not lower than the barrier price (not knocked in that day), investors can receive a monthly cash dividend. Even if it has been tapped in, if the target rebounds thereafter, there is still a chance to get a certain coupon later. In other words, there is an opportunity for the so-called Nirvana rebirth, from which the word "Phoenix" comes into being.

"the recent launch of Phoenix structure snowball is the result of both the market and the risk appetite of most customers." A brokerage business department financial manager introduced to the interface news reporter, "before the classic snowball hit a large area at the beginning of the year, hurt the vitality, customers hope to appropriately reduce earnings expectations and improve the winning rate." Phoenix Snowball allows customers to see the money back in the process of holding positions and improve the position experience. In the face of extreme market, the theoretical maximum risk is also significantly reduced. "

Tan Huaqing, a macro analyst at Castrol Wealth, said that the dividend potential of the Phoenix structure is partly a product of the current environment and is not readily available. This is not only the benefit of the gradual rebound of market volatility, but also the support of the appropriate widening of the basis. The continued downturn in the stock market in February and the widening of spreads have made this kind of high dividend strategy a better time. Once the basis shrinks further and volatility falls, the dividend potential of such strategies is likely to decline.

Interface news reporters are concerned that compared with traditional snowballs or other variants of snowballs, Phoenix structure dividend coupons are indeed quoted at a lower price, but on the whole, all kinds of recent snowball quotations are high.

The customer manager of the business department of a securities firm in Beijing mentioned, "the trading desk of a securities firm earns money in volatility, and the more volatile it is, the more it earns." Recently, the market has been volatile, the trading desk can make high returns, so the quotation given by the brokerage is high. "

The latest research report of Eastern Stock Exchange Futures points out that the number of snowballs issued continues to increase recently. From a structural point of view, the recent Phoenix Snowball issued a significant increase in the proportion of the number of flat knock, early profit and other structural proportion is also larger.

The market may be mispriced in a certain period of time, but it cannot be mispriced all the time.

Interface news reporters are concerned that when recommending snowball products, many financial managers or derivatives sales platforms will have such a view: "compared with high-yield products, Phoenix structure bottom linked index, small risk exposure; compared with high-security products such as bank deposits, the current high volatility environment just creates a high-ticket environment, which is conducive to Phoenix product quotations."

Wu Xiaodong also said that since the beginning of the year, market fluctuations have been amplified, stock index discounts have widened, and dividend quotations for Phoenix structural products have risen significantly. In the context of the current market trend beginning to show weakness and the improvement of Phoenix quotation level, the Phoenix structure of monthly dividend payment as long as it is not knocked in, or one of the best options to deal with complex markets.

"the Phoenix structure or the current wealth management game-breaking light." On social platforms, there are even articles touting the Phoenix structure.

However, for the above popular Phoenix structure, not all institutions and investors are willing to pay for it.

The financial manager of a brokerage in North China said bluntly, "dividend (Phoenix) sold a lot last year, but it will not be sold this year, because the index is strengthened, there is not much enhanced income, the annualized rate is only about two hundred and twenty-three (2-3%), and the dividend payout is not much money every quarter."

Mr. Li, an investor who has always rejected snowballs, told the interface news that although Phoenix can reduce the damage after knocking in, it does not reduce the risk of investors in essence. "the crux of the problem also depends on the underlying hooks of this kind of products." In Mr. Li's view, "Snowball linked small tickets is because the hype is the most serious, up and down vibration fluctuations, so securities firms make a steady profit."

In addition, Mr. Li also said that at present, the bottom of the snowball link is mainly the CSI 1000 Index, and Mr. Li is skeptical about the performance and growth of these stocks.

"risk-free interest rates are falling, the global economy is weak, and there is no liquidity in the small market capitalization of Hong Kong and US stocks. At present, the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 1000 index is more than 30, coupled with the fact that [investors] have to bear 2 per cent of the fees of the brokerage, it is very difficult to make a profit. "

"Phoenix is just one more monthly dividend, which is equivalent to reducing the position and locking in income month by month, so that even if you knock in later, the principal will become less, and the loss will naturally be not as big as before. But the essence has not changed, as long as there is a problem at the bottom of the hook, the risk can not be avoided. You may think that the CSI 1000 has fallen enough, so you want to make a bottom. " As for the recent big sales of Phoenix, Mr. Li thinks.

In addition, on social platforms, some financial bloggers said that investors essentially do not have any means to manage the expectations of the product, can not set a stop line, nor can they stop losses ahead of time. So buying the Phoenix structure, similar to using tactical diligence to cover up strategic laziness, does not change the essence.

Wind shows that since the beginning of the year, the CSI 1000 index has fallen two rounds in a row, especially in January this year, when the CSI 1000 index fell to 4177.CrashbandicootnsanetrilogypcdownloadAt .94 points, the maximum withdrawal was nearly 30%. From then one and a half months to March 21, CSC 1000 quickly recovered its lost territory and returned to more than 5600 points.

However, over the past month, CSI 1000 has dived again. As of press time, the CSI 1000 Index closed at 5066.Crashbandicootnsanetrilogypcdownload.66 o'clock.

On April 12, after the release of the new "National Nine articles", the Wande microdisk index closed two negative lines (down nearly 20 per cent), and the CSI 1000 fell 5.1 per cent in two days. Will this decline trigger a new round of snowballs?

Derivatives analysts at a brokerage in Shanghai believe that the overall impact of the new nine articles on CSC 1000 is limited.

"after all, there is also a CSI 2000 between CSI 1000 and microdisk stocks." In the analyst's opinion.

According to its observation, Phoenix structure focused on issuing more shares in March this year, most of which were linked to CSI 1000, and the knock-in price was basically around 75%, which also meant that the knock-in point would not occur until it fell 25%, and the specific knock-in point still depends on the issuance situation. Now CSC 1000 is only down 10% from its March high, and there is still a safe distance from knocking in.

In addition, the analyst mentioned that the knock-in / knock-out of the snowball depends on both market volatility and futures discount. Although there is a recent decline in the CSI 1000, some investors who have previously bought Phoenix structure have knocked in. According to Phoenix's strategic arrangement, the market rebounded later, and investors still have the hope of knocking out losses or just knocking in monthly coupons.

For brokers, the volatility of China Securities 1000 has increased in the past two days, which is beneficial for them to do grid transactions, buy low and sell high, and snowball quotations will also increase. However, for investors who want to subscribe to Phoenix structure in the near future, analysts interviewed suggested that it might be safer to buy after the market stabilizes.

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